Jul 8 2009

Do You Have The Guts To Buy Stocks?

The desktop stock ticker are all over! You see them in the Finance Section of every one of leading broadcasting networks, placed in the bottom or top of the screen. All on line stock trading company has one. The benefit of stock tickers are that you get a fast summary of share prices in a very intuitive mode. And you can easily get your own personalized real time stock ticker.

There are numerous special types of stock tickers, each one with their own characteristics, but they also share several characteristics. The most general features are the company symbol, the value of the company’s shares, and the direction in which the stock price is moving.

As mentioned, there are scores of special ticker software available for your desktop, so you too can have a tape stock ticker running on your computer. In General desktop stock tickers are rather small programs, that does not use a lot of RAM or CPU, so you can continue your work. Often the stock tickers can be configured to alert you if the price of a chosen stock move outside a predefined area or the stock price changes swiftly. The desktop stock ticker can be downloaded from a lot of of the online stock trading companies. Since the tickers often are very small applications, the download and installation is fast and easy done.

Real Time or Near Real Time?

Many free desktop stock tickers shows the stock prices in “near real-time”, meaning that the prices are delayed – most often 15 to 20 minutes. If you are a customer with an online stock trading company however, you can normally get real-time prices – this is evidently a enormous benefit, especially if you are a day trader, who buys and sells regularly the same shares though out the day. In this case you have to know the exact price, since you make your money on very small movements. If you are a long term investor the delayed prices are of less importance.

The NASDAQ Toolbar – This free stock ticker toolbar for Windows XP offers many great features including a one-click stock lookup and of course, an auto-updating, scrolling stock ticker that displays in your browser no matter web page you’re on.

The NASDAQ Market Ticker – This stock market ticker allows you to monitor your investments right on your desktop. The NASDAQ Market Ticker includes quotes, net change, percent change for NASDAQ, Amex, NYSE, and OTCBB stocks; updates to key market indices, most active lists for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex — all based on your personal selections or our two pre-configured choices; and the top 10 news headlines.

The NASDAQ Stock Widget is a portable portfolio ticker you can save to your desktop, your favorite social networking site, or any web page. Also displays Most Active, Advancers, and Decliners from NASDAQ, NYSE, and AMEX. Try the Stock Widget.

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Jul 7 2009

Who Is Congressman Issa And Can He Be Impeached?


Today’s big news (at least in some corners of the investment world) is US Congressman Issa’s claim that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has “covered up” the facts regarding the Bank of America acquisition of Merrill Lynch and Mr. Bernanke’s supposed threats to BOA CEO Ken Lewis. Mr. Issa is an otherwise, insignificant Republican Congressman from Califronia, who, according to his webpage, has great admiration for President Ronald Reagan. But I promise you, President Reagan would want nothing to do with this idiot, and would quickly distance himself from his fellow state politician.

This whole Bank of America situation should be much ado about nothing. Whatever happened between the Federal Reserve, the US Treasury and the banking industry in the last few months of 2008 was done in desparation to keep the entire planet above water. Had the American banking industry collapsed at that time, there would have been a domino effect that would have collapsed the financial system worldwide. All large banks lend to each other on a global basis, and if a few of the “money center” banks like Citi and BOA had gone bankrupt in the middle of the crisis, all banks would have likely ended in the same situation. This would have magnified the recession several times over into a crisis that would have easily eclipsed the Great Depression.

For those new to this story: Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson, then-Secretary of the US Treasury, first convinced Ken Lewis to acquire Merrill Lynch, which was in very bad shape. Serial acquirer Mr. Lewis reportedly had coveted M-L for many years and was happy to oblige, with government assistance. But once the bean counters at BOA looked under the covers, M-L was in much worse shape than they had suspected. At this point, in early December 2008, Mr. Lewis wanted to pull out of the deal fearing for his reputation and the impact on BOA shareholders. Had Lewis done so at that point in time, the very fragile banking system may have collapsed, as it started to in September when the Treasury and bank regulators allowed Lehman to go bankrupt following the bankruptcies earlier of Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and AIG.

And here is where the controversy begins. Mr. Lewis needed some amount of encouragement to keep his end of the bargain. Bernanke and Paulson helped him understand the danger to the entire global economic system if he abandoned the deal at that point in time. Mr. Lewis was not happy about the situation, but agreed to go through with the merger, because he came to understand the ramifications of pulling out, according to his own Congressional testimony a few weeks ago.

This should be “end of story”. We all know how dangerous the banking system was last Fall. The Fed and Treasury did what it took to stabilize the system at great risk to personal reputation, and reportedly 24/7 effort over more than a couple months. If some subtle arm twisting took place to help Mr. Lewis understand the significance of his decision, then so be it. What a small price to pay for saving the global economy. We aren’t talking water-boarding or horse heads here.

Then, along comes Rep. Issa and his over-reaching desire for political gain (apparently, that is the only motive that makes any sense). He is the Republican minority leader on the House Oversight Committee. Today, he decided to make hay of the misplaced concerns in Congress that Bernanke and Paulson overstepped their authority and coerced Mr. Lewis into making the acquisition, something Mr. Lewis has already denied under oath in his Congressional testimony.

Mr. Issa apparently thinks his personal political gain is more important than the stability of the world’s economy and the millions of unemployed. His accusations of “cover up” intentionally bring up comparsions to Watergate. Why else would he use such a volatile term? He obviously is trying hard to embarrass the President who has backed Bernanke. Some of the Republican “hard right” are not happy that Bernanke has saved the banking system preferring instead “to let the free market fix the problem”. Yeh, right.

So, I ask the question? Can a Congressman be impeached? And if so, how can I help impeach Mr. Issa? He is a disgrace to our country and to the Republican party and should be ashamed of himself for breaching protocol and making on his own as only the minority leader of this committee, his accusations regarding the Fed Chairman.

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Jul 6 2009

Stock Investors Beat Up Equities After Employment Report

It was one of the worst pre-July 4th holiday trading sessions in the history of the stock markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 223 points or 2.63% in what was an across the board decline. For a significant portion of the trading day all 30 of the Dow components were in the negative. The technology heavy Nasdaq lost nearly 50 points or 2.67% as well and the broadest measure of the three, the S & p 500 Index was off 26.91 points or 2.91%. A large amount of the selling was attributed to the worse than expected non farm payroll report released this morning.

The employment situation report contains the unemployment rate, nonfarm payrolls and wage information. The report as a whole was mostly in line with the low end of expectations, however payrolls came in at -467,000 well off the largest estimates of -435,000 and a substantial miss from the median consensus estimates of -350,000. The unemployment rate came in slightly better than consensus at 9.5%. Also initial jobless claims were less than forecast, neither of which helped the markets as they continued to focus on the payrolls throughout the day.

This week Citigroup was again in the headlines when it decided to piss people off in several new ways. With the government adding new restrictions on employee bonuses the bank decided to raise salaries, some up to 50%, in order to retain people they consider “key employees”. In a totally unrelated press release Citi said it would be raising rates on the credit cards of up to 15 million customers. Citigroup was among the biggest recipients of federal aid receiving more than $45 billion in TARP funds. Since 2006 their stock has tumbled 95% and over the last six quarters they have lost close to $36 billion.

Another very unpopular company was in the news this week, American International Group or AIG effected a 1 for 20 reverse stock split on Wednesday. The measure was overwhelmingly approved by shareholders, but the stock fell over 22% on the day. Before the split the stock was trading at $1.16 per share on Tuesday, but was down more than 20% early in the morning on Wednesday and closed the day at $18.08 per share. Executives said the move was necessary to prevent the stock from being delisted from the New York Stock Exchange. In a strange coincidence the NYSE erroneously posted a suspension and delisting notice of AIG on the NYSE’s website, the notice was removed once the error was discovered.

Overall the stock markets have turned decidedly negative for the week and it was one of the worst first weeks of July in the history of the markets. For next week market investors will look to earnings as the driving factors for stocks. Alcoa reports its earnings on Tuesday which traditionally begins earnings season. Chevron, 3com, Progressive Corp among others all report their earnings as well. Next week is pretty light on economic data releases the most important ones to watch are jobless claims on Thursday and Consumer Sentiment on Friday.

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Jul 5 2009

Equities Intent To Trade Sideways

Stock Markets on Wednesday traded marginally higher before losing about half the gains heading into the close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 57 points or 0.68% to close at 8504.06, the Standard and Poors 500 Index closed up just over 4 points or 0.44% to end the day at 923.33 and the Nasdaq day gained 10.68 points or 0.58% finishing the session at 1845.72.

General Mills, the maker of Cheerios,Yoplait,Hamburger Helper and other snack products reported earnings for their fiscal fourth quarter and fiscal 2009 before the bell this morning. For the fiscal year of 2009 net sales were us 8 percent to $14.7 billion and earnings per share excluding special items rose 13 percent to $3.98, well above analysts consensus estimates. For the fourth quarter ‘09 net income was $358.8 million or $1.07 per share, above the estimated .81 cents per share. The stock finished the day up 2.16 or 3.86% to close at 58.18 per share. The stock has been on a consistent climb since hitting March lows of around $46, but is still well off of its 52 week high of $72 per share set last September.

Constellation Brands, the largest wine company in the world, announced its fiscal first quarter 2010 results this morning. The company reporting net income of $6.5 million or 3 cents per share well off of its $44.6 million profit in the same quarter a year ago. The companies stock was higher on the day by 7.33% up to 13.61 per share after the company reiterated its profit outlook for the full fiscal year. “We are generally pleased with our quarterly results, which were in-line with our expectations,” said Robert Sands President and CEO in the earnings press release, “we took steps over the past 18 months to shift the focus of our strategy to building must-have brands that return the greatest profits and that represent good value for consumers.” The full press release is available on their website.

Today the ADP employment report was released and missed expectations. The report came in with 473,000 jobs lost during the month of June, this was much higher than analyst estimates of 394,000. The report showed the rate of job cuts slowed slightly from Mays 485,000 number, but was still a sign that the recession may drag out longer than people had hoped. The ISM Manufacturing number, a survey of over three hundred manufacturing firms on different aspects of their business, was released on Wednesday and came in at 44.8. This was the highest reading for the Index since last August and slightly higher than the average estimates of analysts of 44.5.

Motor vehicle sales for June were also reported by major automakers on Wednesday afternoon. Ford (F) had its smallest drop this year with sales falling 11% last month. It was a different story for Chrysler had a 42% drop in auto sales, Toyota (TM) reported a 32% fall and Nissan (NSANY) had a 23% dip in the month of June. Despite those numbers Ford (F) shares were down 2.6% on the day, while Toyota and Nissan posted only modest declines of 0.3% and 0.6%.

Software company LogMeIn went public today in an uncertain ipo market and was trading higher throughout the day. The company makes on demand remote connectivity solutions for small and medium size businesses. The offering was for 6,666,667 shares of common stock and was priced at $16 per share, which was the high end of the range. LogMeIn (LOGM) expects to make $107 million on the offering which was trading above the $20 per share level in early afternoon action. The book managers for the offering were JP Morgan Securities and Barclays Capital Inc.

Tomorrow is the now much more anticipated release of the initial jobless claims report. After the ADP report showed greater than expected numbers no doubt analysts are revising their estimates. The initial jobless claims is a weekly report put out by the US Department of Labor on the number of individuals filing for unemployment for the first time. The consensus estimates on Wall Street were for 620,000 new applicants. But equity investors should expect this number to be higher around 625,000-626,000. Several small companies will be reporting earnings tomorrow Methode Electronics, Inc. symbol MEI estimate -0.16, Acuity Brands, Inc. symbol AYI estimate 0.57, MSC Industrial Direct Co. symbol MSM estimate 0.38 symbol MSCI Inc. symbol MXB estimate 0.24 per share. The earnings releases should not have any effect on the overall markets or the individual company sectors.

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Jul 5 2009

Investments For You And Your Family To Help You Sustain Financial Independance.

I think the goal in life for most people is to develop financial independence, so they can help and play more with others.

I think the secret to obtaining financial independence in this modern day and age will be to join with like minded individuals and share and grow together on the internet.

This is what I am exercising right now and I have joined with others that think the same way and I would like to join with you to.

I for one do not want to depend on working for someone else to provide me with all the security of being able to financially support myself and family. Having to work for someone else creates a level of control by the employer that can be worrying for the employee and can create stress for the employee.

I don’t think people want to be millionaires, it would be nice but I think most people just want enough so they don’t have to go to an 8 hour job, getting into traffic to have to get to a job that is not in itself entirely satisfying.

I have already found some great systems that I am using at present and paying and I would like to share them with you. I have also highlighted systems that have are not paying and are a waste of time, yes I have learned from experience what to stay away from and I am also sharing this information with you.

Join and lets share and grow together.

Reality #1 of Investing Today — We are Poorly Informed About the Basics.

Discussion boards permit us to learn things about investing that we couldn’t learn from books or speeches. One thing I’ve learned is that most middle-class investors of today do not possess a sure understanding of the basics –where stock returns come from, what causes prices to change, the distinction between the forms of timing that work and the forms that do not work, that sort of thing. I’ve become a big believer in stressing the basics over and over and over again.

Reality #2 of Investing Today — The “Experts” are Only Slightly Better Informed Than We Are.

We middle-class investors have an excuse; we’re busy and learning about investing is not our favorite thing to do with our time. The bigger problem is that the big-name experts are not all that much better informed than we are re the basics. They have mastered lots of advanced stuff. But not the fundamentals. Yowsa!

Reality #3 of Investing Today — We Have Placed Too Much Trust in the “Experts.”

The typical middle-class investor assumes that the “experts” are far better informed than he is. He doesn’t know enough about the realities himself to see the flaws in the conventional advice. And he doesn’t realize how great the pressures are on the experts to tell investors what they want to hear rather than what they need to hear. Most “experts” would be better characterized as expert salesmen or expert politicians than as expert investors, but few middle-class investors are cynical enough to appreciate the extent to which this is so.

Reality #4 of Investing Today — Complacency Has Become a Dangerous Habit of Thought.

Most of us are not too concerned about the flaws in the conventional investing wisdom. The huge bull market lasted long enough to make complacency a habit of thought.

Reality #5 of Investing Today — Our Complacency Is Coming Under Increasingly Strong Challenge.

Our complacency has been challenged by eight years of poor performance for stocks. But most of us presume that the years of poor performance are setting the stage for a new bull run rather than that they are the early years of an inevitable return to reasonable price levels. We are only recently beginning to form strong doubts over what we were told during the huge bull market as to how stock investing works in the long run.

Reality #6 of Investing Today — There Are Big Price Drops to Come.

The fair-value P/E10 level is 14. We are now (this article was posted in January 2008) at a P/E10 level of 24. Given the lack of understanding of the fundamentals, the trip down to fair-value price levels is likely to cause widespread investor disillusionment, which may mean a drop to price levels far below the levels that represent fair value. Investor emotion brings prices down to unreasonably low levels as often as it brings them up to unreasonably high levels.

Reality #7 of Investing Today — Buy-and-Hold Is About to Endure Its First Real-World Test.

Buy-and-hold has become a wildly popular investing strategy. It has never yet been tested by a real-world bear market. It seems likely that buy-and-hold will be subjected to its first real-world test in the not too distant future. Given the lack of effective preparation that the “experts” have provided, my strong hunch is that most investors following buy-and-hold strategies will suffer a crisis of confidence.

Reality #8 of Investing Today — The Key to Successful Buy-and-Hold Investing Is Becoming Informed about the Effect of Valuations on Long-Term Returns.

It’s not buy-and-hold that is at fault. It is the failure of the “experts” to inform us of the effect of valuations on long-term returns. Buy-and-hold is a solid idea that has been poorly formulated in its initial incarnation.

Reality #9 of Investing Today — P/E10 is the Answer.

I believe that an appreciation of the P/E10 valuation-assessment tool is the answer for investors confused about how long-term stock investing works. The idea that investors should maintain the same stock allocations when prices reach la-la land levels never made sense; it became popular because the “experts” so often point to P/E1, a terribly flawed valuation-assessment tool. Once P/E10 is used to assess valuations, long-term stock investing begins to make sense; the prices we pay for stocks really do affect the long-term value proposition obtained from them, just as common sense tells us it must.

Reality #10 of Investing Today — The Hardest Obstacle to Getting to Where We Need to Go is Getting the “Experts” to Acknowledge Their Mistakes.

The information we need to become effective long-term investors is readily available to us today. However, most big-name “experts” remain unwilling to acknowledge the flaws present in the investing advice they offered during the huge bull market. Our biggest problem going forward is that old human reluctance to saying out loud those three one-syllable words “I” and “Was” and “Wrong,” words that can fairly by characterized as the three hardest to pronounce in the entire English language.

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