Understand the forex market.The most active traded crosses focus on the three non USD currencies (EUR, JPY and GBP). These crosses are known as the euro crosses, yen crosses and the sterling crosses. The most actively traded cross currency pairs are: EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY. Crosses enable currency traders to directly target trades to specific individual currencies to take advantage of news or events. Get good forex training.
Develop your own forex trading system. You may notice that the currencies are combined in a seemingly strange way when you look up at the currency pairs. For instance, if sterling-yen (GBP/JPY) is a yen cross, why it is not being also referred to as yen-sterling (JPY/GBP)? The answer is that those quoting conventions were evolved over the years. These conventions have been designed to reflect traditionally strong currencies versus traditionally weak currencies with the strong currency coming first.
The first currency in the currency pair is known as the base currency. For example in USD/EUR, USD is the base currency. It is the base currency that you are buying or selling when you buy or sell a currency pair. The second currency in the pair is known as the counter currency. In the above currency pair, Euro is the counter or secondary currency. So if you buy 100,000 EUR/JPY. You have just bought 100,000 Euros and sold the equivalent amount in Japanese Yen.
So currency trading involves simultaneously buying and selling. Going long in currency trading means having bough a currency pair! When you are long, you are looking for the prices to go higher. So you can sell at a higher price that where you bought.
Going short in currency trading means selling a currency pair! It means that you have sold the currency pair, meaning you have sold the base currency and bought the counter currency. In currency trading going short is as common as going long.
Selling high and buying low is the standard currency trading strategy. Having no position in the market is known as being square or flat. If you have an open position and you want to close it, it’s called squaring up. If you are short, you need to buy to square up. If you are long, you need to sell to go flat.
A clear understanding of how P&L works is especially critical to online margin trading. Profit and Loss is how traders measure success and failure. You will need to pony up cash as collateral to support the margin requirements established by your broker when you open an online currency trading account.
Profit and Loss calculations are pretty straight forward. They are based on position size and the number of pips you make or lose. A pip is the smallest increment of price fluctuation in currency pairs. Most of the currency pairs are quoted up to four decimal places except those involving JPY; they are only quoted up to 2 decimal places. Suppose GBP/USD quote is 1.2963. If the price moves from 1.2963 to 1.2983, it has gone up by 20 pips (1.2983-1.2963). Pip is the increase or decrease in the fourth decimal digit. Pips are also referred to as points.
Understand candlestick patterns.The Bearish Gravestone Doji: Dojis appear very rarely in the candlestick patterns. A Doji is created when the opening and closing prices of the day are the same. It is very rare for the opening and closing prices for the day to exactly equal each other. However, the Gravestone Doji is formed when the opening and closing prices of the day are equal to the low of the day, the most bearish of Doji. Learn forex trading and develop your own forex trading system.
These were some single stick patters that were most basic and easy to identify. Not all single stick patterns are straightforward. Some extremely useful single stick patterns rely heavily on their location on a chart.
Making yourself familiar with these candlestick patterns and how to identify and trade based on them is another way that you can add a versatile weapon to your trading arsenal. A variety of single stick patterns can provide some terrific trading opportunities if you can spot them in the right market environment.
We have talked about Dojis. Dojis are often associated with the reversal of the trend and can serve as outstanding reversal indicators. If a Doji appears in an uptrend, it could very well indicate that the trend maybe changing to a downtrend soon especially if it is a Gravestone Doji. Similarly for a downtrend!
The Long Legged Doji: A long legged Doji like the name long legged implies features a small stick with very long wicks on either side. The small candle on a long legged Doji is normally located very close to the center of the candlestick.
A long legged Doji is considered a reversal signal when appearing in an uptrend or a downtrend. This Doji indicates that there was a lot of uncertainty in the market after a period of directional certainty. This change of conviction often results in the change of trend.
The Spinning Top: A spinning top is formed when a candlestick has a small body and wick stick out on both ends. The body should appear to the center of the range of the day’s price action. The wicks should also be as wide as the candle section of the candlestick.
Like Doji, the spinning top is another pattern that depends on the market context and reveals a tight battle between the bulls and the bears. Whenever, there is a close battle between the bulls and the bears, eventually one side have to give in. When this happens, an explosive move in one direction is possible.
The spinning tops make frequent appearances. Dojis appear very rarely. However, like Dojis, the spinning tops are nice indicators that the trend is about to end and reverse itself.
Belt Holds: There are two types of belt holds: bullish and bearish. Bullish belt hold features an open equal to the low and a close near the high which leaves a small wick near the top of the candle.
Belt holds also depend on market context and are excellent trend reversal signals. Bearish belt holds patterns on the other hand opens on their highs and close near their lows, thus leaving a small wick near the bottom of the candle.
Understand the forex market.We like to think of the currency market as the, “Big Kahuna” of the financial markets. Currency Market is the most traded financial markets in the world. The currency market is the crossroads for international capital, the intersection through which the global commercial and investment flows have to move. Get good forex training.
Develop your own forex trading system.More than anything else, the currency market is the trader’s market. It’s a market that is open around the clock six days a week, enabling currency traders to act on news and events as they happen. It’s a market where a billion dollar of trades can be executed in a matter of seconds and may not even move the prices noticeably.
By far the vast majority of currency trading volume is based on speculation. While commercial and financial transactions in the currency markets represent huge nominal sums, they still pale in comparison to the amount spend on speculation.
The depth and breadth of the speculative market means that the liquidity of the overall currency market is unparalleled among global financial markets. Estimates are that upwards of 90% of the daily trading volume is derived from speculation. It means that commercial or investment based currency trades account for less than 10% of the daily global volume.
If you are new to currency trading, the mechanics and terminology may take some getting used to. Currency trading has its own set of trading lingo just like any financial market. The biggest mental hurdle facing newcomers to currency trading especially those traders coming from other markets are getting there head around the idea that each currency trade consists of a simultaneous sale and purchase.
For example, in the stock market, if you purchase 100 shares of Google (GOOG), you own only 100 shares and want to see the price go up. When you want to exit, you simply sell your 100 shares. But in currencies, the purchase of one currency involves the simultaneous sale of another currency.
This is the exchange in the foreign exchange. So currencies come in pairs. To make matters easier, currency markets refer to trading currencies by pairs. All most all currency pairs have nicknames or abbreviations. The major currency pairs all involve the US Dollar on one side of the deal.
The most frequently traded currency pairs are: EUR/USD, USD/CAD, UAD/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and NZD/USD. The designation of each currency is expressed using ISO codes for each currency.
Although the vast majority of currency trading takes place in the dollar pairs, cross currency pairs serve as the alternative to always trading the US Dollar. A cross currency pair or a cross is any currency pair that does not include the US Dollar. Cross rates are derived from the respective USD pairs but are quoted independently.
Understand candlestick patterns.Hanging Man & the Hammer: The hammer or the hanging man is identified by the small candle that appears at the very top of the pattern! There is usually a pretty long wick at the bottom. If you see this pattern at the bottom of a downtrend, you are looking at a hammer. If it appears at the top of the uptrend, it is considered a hanging man. Learn forex trading and develop your own forex trading system.
If a hammer appears in a downtrend, you wouldn’t trade on it if the opening price on the next trading day is higher than the hammer’s close. Similarly, if you think you have a hanging man appearing in an uptrend, you wouldn’t trade on it unless it is confirmed the next day with an opening price lower than the previous close.
Double stick patterns depend on two days. The first day is called the set up day and the second day is called the signal day. Compared to single stick patterns, double stick patterns are difficult to come by. But these patterns can be very powerful and profitable if you put in the time and effort to monitor them.
Engulfing Pattern: It can be bullish or bearish! The first double stick pattern is the bullish engulfing pattern. The name comes from the fact that the signal day engulfs the pattern day. Both the wick and the body of the second day completely cover the same ground as the first day. The setup day candle should be bearish and the signal day candle should be bullish bigger than the last day bearish candle. Likewise the bearish engulfing pattern signals the end of a uptrend.
Bullish Harami: A Harami is a two day pattern with the candle of the setup day than the candle of the signal day. The first day is very bearish and occurring in a downtrend. However, on the second day bulls take over. This signals reversals of a downtrend that culminated in a downtrend.
Bullish Harami Cross: Bullish Harami Cross is a special variant of the Harami. It involves a Doji pattern and should always be considered an indicator of the potential reversal. Bullish Harami Cross appears during a downtrend. Its setup date is a black long candle. Its signal day is a Doji.
Inverted Hammer: Inverted hammer can be bullish or bearish. A bullish inverted hammer pattern occurs in a downtrend. The first day is a bearish candle. The signal day is an inverted hammer. The bullish inverted hammer is a fairly rare pattern.
Bullish Doji Star: The bullish doji star is very similar to a bullish inverted hammer. It occurs in a downtrend and signals that the bulls have had enough. A bullish doji pattern is a two day pattern with the doji appearing on the signal day during a downtrend.
Bullish Meeting Line: This pattern is another signal that a trend reversal is about to take place. The setup day is a long black candle and the signal day is a long white candle.
Piercing Line: A piercing line can be bullish or bearish! The bullish piercing line consists of a long black candle on the setup day followed by a long white candle on the signal day. The open of the signal day should be lower than the low of the setup day. Likewise, in case of a bearish piercing line a white candle is followed by a black candle.
Warren Buffett spoke today, to the fabulous Julia Boorstin of CNBC (what great hair she has!). I don’t particularly care for Buffett’s politics and his ideas on taxation. But when it comes to economics and business prospects, Buffett is without match, as his investing record shows.
I agree entirely with him about the outlook for our economy the next few years. He makes the statement: “I don’t know if the movie is 2 or 4 hours long, but I know it has a happy ending”. What a positive point of view. More of us should share that perspective.
I am piggy-backing on many of Buffett’s trades since late 2008 owning: GE, WFC, USB and GS. These are all global franchises that for the most part, came through the crash without much damage (GE is much healthier than its stock price suggests and is a raging bargain).
Regarding the housing crisis and home building, Buffett makes the point that the housing crisis precipitated our economic crisis (but he did not lay the blame properly at the feet of a laissez faire Congress that eliminated the regulatory protections needed and cheerled the mortgage industry into the ground). His medicine: don’t build any more houses; a little simplistic, but maybe tongue in cheek. We need to work off the inventory we already have. I think that is pretty obvious and goes without saying. But he said it by way of making the case that excess housing is the root of our problems and our economy won’t truly mend until housing inventories are once again in balance.
As debate grows about a possible second stimulus package for the flagging American economy, at least one legendary investor is giving the idea his guarded approval.
The “Oracle of Omaha” believes a second stimulus may be called for.”I think that a second one may well be called for,” Warren Buffett, the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, told “Good Morning America” today. But, he added, “you hope it doesn’t get watered down in many ways.”
Buffett cautioned that a second stimulus package, like the first, won’t be “a panacea,” because stimulus packages take time to work. He criticized lawmakers’ work on the first stimulus package, which contained $787 billion in spending.
“Our first stimulus bill … was sort of like taking half a tablet of Viagra and having also a bunch of candy mixed in … as if everybody was putting in enough for their own constituents,” he said. “It doesn’t have really quite the wall that might have been anticipated there.”
Buffett also criticized the government’s public-private investment plan, through which private investors are supposed to buy so-called toxic assets off the balance sheets of ailing banks that received billions in government aid.
“I do not like the idea of any kind of a plan involving the government where Wall Street makes a lot of money. My plan provided that they would make no money whatsoever, and the American public would make the money. I just think that Wall Street owes the American people one at this point,” he said.
Nebraska native Buffett, known as the “Oracle of Omaha” for his long history of prescient stock picks, said that despite the talk of recent economic “green shoots,” he couldn’t predict when the flagging economy would bounce back.
“We are not in a freefall, but we are not in a recovery either,” Buffett said. “We were in a freefall really in the last quarter of last year, starting in the financial markets and spreading to the economy, and we had this huge change in behavior. That change hasn’t changed.”
The U.S. unemployment rate, which currently stands at 9.5 percent, still “has a ways to go” before it peaks, he said. His own company, he said, had to lay off 500 people.
“We didn’t want to do it, and if we saw things coming back we wouldn’t do it,” he said.
Without saying any more, here is the interview:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1176856262&play=1
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